A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
